Pending Home Sales Post First Decline in 3 Months, Even As Mortgage Rates Drop

The weekly average mortgage rate dropped for the ninth straight week, dipping to an 11-month low. But would-be buyers are hesitant because prices are high, the economy is uncertain and new listings are dwindling. Pending U.S. home sales dipped roughly 1% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending September 21, the first decline in nearly three months, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. The weekly average mortgage rate has fallen to 6.26%, the lowest level in nearly a year and down from roughly 6.9% at the start of summer. The dip was in anticipation of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut of the year. But steadily falling mortgage rates—this marks the ninth straight week of declines—haven’t brought many homebuyers to the market. And while mortgage applications to refinance homes jumped 58% week over week during the second week of September, mortgage-purchase applications rose just 3%. There are several reasons homebuying demand isn’t yet improving: Stubbornly high home prices. The median U.S. home-sale price is up 2.2% year over year, the biggest increase in nearly six months. That’s keeping monthly housing payments elevated despite falling mortgage rates. Mortgage rates haven’t fallen enough. Redfin agents report that many would-be buyers are waiting for rates to fall below 6% before making a move—something that may or may not happen. Lack of fresh homes to choose from. New listings of homes for sale are essentially flat year over year, as they have been for two months. The total number of homes for sale is up 8.6%, the smallest increase since the start of 2024. With new listings dwindling as home sellers react to the buyer’s market, house hunters don’t have many options. Economic uncertainty. Redfin agents say some house hunters are backing off because they’re concerned about potential layoffs, ups and downs in the stock market, and general uncertainty about tariffs, and a possible recession. According to Redfin agents in certain parts of the country, some of the buyers who are moving forward are making offers with contingencies, and are willing to walk away during the inspection period if they don’t get what they want. For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page. Leading indicators Indicators of homebuying demand and activity Value (if applicable) Recent change Year-over-year change Source Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.37% (Sept. 24) Up from 12-month low of 6.13% a week earlier Up from 6.15% Mortgage News Daily Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.26% (week ending Sept. 18) Lowest level in nearly a year Up from 6.09% Freddie Mac Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) Essentially flat (up 0.3%) from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 19) Up 18% Mortgage Bankers Association Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index Down 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending Sept. 21) Down 14% A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents Google searches of “homes for sale” Down 8% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 21) Up 6% Google Trends Touring activity Up 19% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 21) At this time last year, it was up 9% from the start of 2024 ShowingTime Key housing-market data U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 21, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. Four weeks ending Sept. 21, 2025 Year-over-year change Notes Median sale price $390,750 2.2% Biggest increase in nearly 6 months Median asking price $403,675 2.6% Median monthly mortgage payment $2,579 at a 6.26% mortgage rate 4.1% Up $14 from August’s 9-month low Pending sales 78,559 -0.9% First decline in nearly 3 months New listings 90,062 0.7% Active listings 1,200,443 8.6% Smallest increase since Feb. 2024 Months of supply 4.4 +0.4 pts. 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions Share of homes off market in two weeks 30.9% Down from 32% Median days on market 46 +6 days Share of homes sold above list price 24% Down from 28% Average sale-to-list price ratio 98.4% Down from 98.9% Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 21, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. Metros with biggest year-over-year increases Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases Notes Median sale price Milwaukee (11.3%) Cleveland (9.3%) Detroit (7.5%) Pittsburgh (7.5%) Nassau County, NY (6.4%) San Francisco (-6.3%) Austin, TX (-1.2%) Houston (-0.9%) Sacramento, CA (-0.5%) Atlanta (-0.4%) Declined in 9 metros Pending sales San Francisco (12.3%) Anaheim, CA (7.7%) Riverside, CA (7.1%) Chicago (7.1%) Cleveland (6.8%) Houston (-14.4%) Las Vegas (-11.1%) Denver (-9.9%) Tampa, FL (-9.5%) Seattle (-7.4%) New listings Baltimore (13.1%) Pittsburgh (12.5%) Cleveland (11%) Milwaukee (10.1%) Montgomery County, PA (9.8%) Orlando, FL (-15.9%) Tampa, FL (-13.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-12.4%) San Antonio (-11.8%) Riverside, CA (-11.4%) To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-rates-fall