Pending Home Sales Slide, But There Are Bright Spots: Buyers Have Bargaining Power, Starter-Home Sales Improving

Pending U.S. home sales fell 1% year over year as mortgage rates ticked up after nine straight weeks of declines. Some would-be buyers are hesitant due to economic uncertainty, including jitters about potential layoffs and the government shutdown. Pending U.S. home sales fell roughly 1% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending September 28, the biggest decline in nearly five months, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. On a local level, pending sales fell in 30 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, led by Houston (-15.4% year over year), Denver (-12.3%) and Las Vegas (-11.2%). There are several reasons would-be homebuyers are backing off: High home prices. The median home-sale price rose 2.5% year over year, the biggest increase in six months. Mortgage rates have reversed course, started rising again. The weekly average mortgage rate ticked up to 6.3% from 6.26%, a small increase but the first after nine straight weeks of declines. Rising rates are exacerbating rising sale prices; the median monthly housing payment is $2,590, up about $40 from early September’s 9-month low. Supply surplus is dissipating. The total number of homes for sale is up 8.4%, the smallest increase since the start of 2024, as growth in new listings slows from the spring and the pool of inventory slowly gets bought up. Widespread economic uncertainty. Some would-be buyers are holding off due to recession nerves, concerns about potential layoffs, and jitters about the federal government shutdown, which started on Tuesday night. But there are a few bright spots in the housing market: Sales of starter homes, those whose sale prices fall into the 5th-35th percentile, increased 4% in August, even as demand for higher-priced homes stumbled. Buyers have negotiating power, with half a million more sellers than buyers in today’s housing market. The ADP private-sector job report, which markets are relying on because the shutdown means there's currently no government jobs data, shows that the labor market was fairly weak in September. That should push mortgage rates down slightly unless we subsequently get jobs data that contradicts the ADP report. “For buyers, there are deals to be made,” said Jason Gale, a Redfin Premier agent in New Orleans. “People who need to move are still out there house hunting, and they’re finding that it’s a good time to negotiate with sellers, especially for homes that have been on the market for longer than a few weeks. Most buyers are able to get a discount on the price or significant help with their closing costs.” For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page. Leading indicators Indicators of homebuying demand and activity Value (if applicable) Recent change Year-over-year change Source Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.37% (Oct. 1) Up from 12-month low of 6.13% two weeks earlier Up from 6.2% Mortgage News Daily Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.3% (week ending Sept. 25) Up from 6.26% a week earlier, the first increase after 9 weeks of decreases Up from 6.08% Freddie Mac Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) Down 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 26) Up 16% Mortgage Bankers Association Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending Sept. 28) Down 14% A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents Google searches of “homes for sale” Unchanged from a month earlier (as of Sept. 28) Up 25% Google Trends Touring activity Up 18% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 28) At this time last year, it was up 3% from the start of 2024 ShowingTime Key housing-market data U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 28, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. Four weeks ending Sept. 28, 2025 Year-over-year change Notes Median sale price $390,845 2.5% Biggest increase in 6 months Median asking price $403,975 2% Median monthly mortgage payment $2,590 at a 6.3% mortgage rate 3.5% Up $37 from August’s 9-month low Pending sales 78,023 -0.9% Biggest decline in nearly 5 months New listings 91,387 2.5% Active listings 1,206,271 8.4% Smallest increase since Feb. 2024 Months of supply 4.8 +0.4 pts. 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions Share of homes off market in two weeks 31% Down from 32% Median days on market 47 +7 days Share of homes sold above list price 23.6% Down from 27% Average sale-to-list price ratio 98.4% Down from 98.9% Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 28, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. Metros with biggest year-over-year increases Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases Notes Median sale price Detroit (8.6%) Pittsburgh (7.8%) Warren, MI (7%) Cleveland (7%) Providence, RI (6%) San Francisco (-2.3%) Austin, TX (-2%) Atlanta (-1.7%) Newark, NJ (-1.1%) Sacramento, CA (-0.7%) Declined in 11 metros Pending sales San Francisco (16.1%) West Palm Beach, FL (8.9%) Riverside, CA (8%) Cleveland (7.6%) Chicago (6.7%) Houston (-15.4%) Denver (-12.3%) Las Vegas (-11.2%) Seattle (-9.7%) San Antonio (-8.4%) New listings Pittsburgh (13.1%) Washington, D.C. (10.9%) Montgomery County, PA (10.7%) Detroit (10.1%) Baltimore (9.9%) San Antonio (-12.2%) Orlando, FL (-11.6%) Anaheim, CA (-11.2%) Miami (-10%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-9.6%) To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-prospective-homebuyers-back-away